By supplying the missiles for the attack on Israel from Gaza and being a supporter of troubles in Yemen and elsewhere, Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) signposted a renewed desire to become a major military power, but why. If their intent was to destabilise their region by antagonising Israel into rash (or deliberate?) actions, then the strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria seems to suggest their aim(s) are being achieved; as have more recent Israeli attacks upon them and their infrastructure, which will lead to a war in which Israel is likely to prevail because it's smaller army is more sophisticated, with greater military capabilities,
Israel will have realised the back-room role Iran is playing in the region, but it seems very doubtful their partial withdrawal from Gaza will assuage anyone's annoyance now, nor hint at what comes next, especially so after Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon into the Golan Heights made Israel invade there too, killing many high ranking Hezbollah personnel, as Benjamin Netanyahu asked the Lebanese to help his forces rid themselves of Iran sponsored Hezbollah. That request fell on deaf ears, but the elimination of many Hezbollah leaders will dampen their regional effectiveness and ability to expedite Iran's desire that Israel dies by a thousand cuts, without openly revealing their long term "gameplay"
Iran's attack on a supposed Israeli "spy headquarters" in northern Iraq and similar aggressions upon Syria and Pakistan (who retaliated of course) revealed their latest desire to become a more significant geopolitical influencer of the middle east, though striking a US military area inside Iraq which killed Americans was ill-advised and must stop if shit is not to hit their fan. Iran is showing off to their regional pals at the moment, hoping for an alliance against Israel, which is perhaps what the original Gaza/Hamas attack was really about? Iran's "leaders" want engineered strife in the region, whilst their people probably just want a stable, unoppressed lifestyle.
Update 14th Apr 2024: Having built tension(s) in the area over many months following the missile strikes and incursion into Israel, with murder and kidnappings, Iran and Israel finally came to blows. These former allies (until 1979) have been bickering for years, but why did
Iran attacked Israel?
Israel seems to have been played like a fiddle; having been goaded into an over-the-top response to the "Palestinian" invasion from Gaza they have brought upon themselves global condemnation, enough for the self-appointed regional "white knight" (Iran) to feel justified in now "reprimanding" Israel. This is bad news, but possibly the fulfilment of "someone's" desire for instability in the region, for the long-term eradication of Israel.
Iran seemingly wants war with Israel, with a view to supremacy in the middle east, but former US President Biden's condemnation of Iran's
brazen act, in which over
300 cruise missiles were inbound for Israel, will be ignored (for now) by Iran, because Israel has thus far done little more than put themselves on
military high alert, choosing to savour their (inevitable) response and it's consequence(s). They are happy to promote the "success" of their
defence systems, though it is telling that the USA had the intelligence to warn Israel, yet refused to be involve in any
retaliatory strike(s), the first of which occurred on
Thursday 18th April 2024 when Israel (alone) executed a missile strike onto an Iranian town hosting a major airbase and large missile production complexes.
This war is official, we are seeing the first act of a simmering play and nothing good will come of it; Israel have been goaded into a long-term regional conflict and are being "played" into a war, starting with Lebanon's Hezbollah. (What is Hezbollah in Lebanon?)
 |
|
Howsoever this regional scenario was engineered, Iran is in their enterprise for a long haul, for not only are they targeting mainland Israel, they desire a de-facto embargo of goods into Israel as Iranian forces began to
seize Israel-linked ships.
Iran's aspirations seems set without major internal changes, so now (May 2024) one has to ask, was the
death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, in a mysterious helicopter, an accident or engineered? Is his death the first step to change in Iran or merely the consolidation of political controls to the supreme leader
Ali Khameei? Time will tell ........
Update 6th Jul 2024: The electorate spoke and reformer
Massoud Pezeshkian was elected to be the the new president of Iran (not the ultimate voice there), possibly signposting Iran's internal reviewing of their standing and responsibilities in that region; or the restlessness for change of the voters.
Update 3rd Aug 2024: Whatever Iran's aims or expectations are in their region, they seem keen to keep swimming in deep waters, for such is their proxy war efforts against Israel in particular that the USA has been triggered into an
overt stance in the region, ostensibly in support of Israel, though they still condemn the genocide ongoing in Gaza. Such is the region's dogma on many "sides" that all parties argue their greater "rights" and continue to kill, subjugate, terrify, curtail or ruin the aspiration of millions of innocents to just live a "normal" life, unfettered by political, religious, power-hungry war-mongers.
Update 25th Oct 2024: This is it then, Israel has
spoken and struck out directly and decisively at Iran who can no longer skulk in the shadows of their mercenary's actions. They were called out by Israel and it's time for them to put-up or shut-up. To escalate or not. Whatever they wish(ed) for in that region is now becoming the main event.
Update 10th Mar 2025: With the sudden overthrow of the Syrian dictatorship of Assad and the decimation of Hezbollah's leadership by Israeli actions, an unstable power vacuum occurred, meaning Iran has to be overt or retiring in its stance toward Israel, for its regional aspirations seem to be
shattering. They still need to come to terms with internal but wide-spread simmering resentment of Iran's national mismanagement amongst its population and it can only be hoped that the
new Syrian head man can bring some stability to the region, something that seems possible following him signing a new constitution endorsing
Syria's 5-year transition plan back to normalcy.
Update 15th Jun 2025: With a de-facto
war erupting between Israel and Iran, it seems their provocations of the past have come home to roost and where that will lead is anyone's guess now that internal dissent is apparent.
Update 22nd Jun 2025: After ostensibly standing on the side-line whilst irritating and disrupting neighbours for many years, using regional proxy forces and threatening "death to America and Israel", Iran's time has come: They have been called-out by the USA, whose
gloves are now off signalling their support of Israel, with spectacular
bombing and the obliteration of many Iranian sites.
Update 9th Dec 2025: Internal domestic pressure continues to rise in Iran; originally started by shop owners protesting about inflationary trends precipitated by global trade sanctions, displays of discontent by the general populace are now nationwide and
internal violence by "the state" against its people has caused the death of thousands as the revolutionary guard are
being told to change their ways by the populace.
Trump has warned Iran to not continue killing its protesters as they themselves become more
violent.
Update 11th Sep 2026: Trump went to war against Iran without positive effect or advantage. Iran basically gives him the finger repeatedly and his initial hubris is waning. Iran continues to irritate Trump by not playing ball, with his ego being beaten-up regularly; indeed, their latest initiative, on this of all days, was to have their proxy militia, the Yemeni Houthis,
tighten Iran's regional grip in the region by taking control of an island capable of controlling access to the Red Sea, aiming to
manipulate global trade and oil price. This action by Iran, with Houthis in the vanguard, is a
new and dangerous venture in the stale-mated US-Iran war. It seems likely, after the
destruction of a key Saudi oil pipeline that Iran intends to ensnare Saudi Arabia and restrict its ability to supply its oil via the Red Sea. Trump's only achievement in his war is to raise the cost of living for most oil consuming manufacturing countries.
